An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted October 17-19 found Democrat James Talarico at 48% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46% in the 2026 U.S. Senate race, with 1% for Libertarian Ted Brown and 5% undecided. When leaners are included, Talarico rises to 49%, Paxton to 48%, and Brown to 3%.
Where
Statewide
When
October 17-19, 2026
Sources
Reported by 2 outlets
Taxes and money
None stated in sources.
Who's involved
James TalaricoDemocratic candidate for U.S. Senate
Ken PaxtonRepublican candidate for U.S. Senate
Ted BrownLibertarian candidate for U.S. Senate
Spencer KimballExecutive director of Emerson College Polling
The facts
Emerson survey of 1,000 Texas likely voters has credibility interval of +/- 3.1 percent.2
Economy is top issue for 39% of Texas voters, up three points from September.2
Immigration cited as top issue by 16% of voters, threats to democracy by 13%.2
Among voters whose top issue is economy, 47% support Paxton, 46% Talarico, 6% undecided.2
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
Spencer Kimball Talarico support increased about one point monthly since August, from 46% to 48%; Paxton hovered at 46-47%.2
Spencer Kimball If Libertarian support melts by Election Day, Paxton likely gains votes as third-party voters are mostly independents or Republicans.2
Spencer Kimball If Libertarian support holds, Talarico benefits.2
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
Polls: Jon Husted Edges Sherrod Brown in Ohio Senate Race
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
Ken Paxton, the Republican state Attorney General running for U.S. Senate against Democrat James Talarico, held a campaign event called the Come and Take It Tour at T&P Station in downtown Fort Worth. Attendees included conservative voters who criticized Talarico's positions.
Ken Paxton, Republican state Attorney General, U.S. Senate candidate; James Talarico, Democrat U.S. Senate candidate; Leonard Lang, Voter at Paxton campaign event and 2 more
Texas voters will decide races for governor, U.S. senator, attorney general, lieutenant governor, comptroller, land commissioner and agriculture commissioner in the 2026 midterm elections less than a month away.
Greg Abbott, Incumbent Republican governor candidate for fourth term; Ken Paxton, Republican attorney general candidate; Mayes Middleton, Republican candidate
Thomas J. Henry, a prominent attorney who donated more than $600,000 to a super PAC supporting Republican Ken Paxton in the primary, announced his endorsement of Democratic opponent James Talarico in the U.S. Senate race. Talarico and Paxton are in the final stretch before election day, with early voting underway through October 30.
$$600,000 for super PAC donation to support Paxton in primary
Thomas J. Henry, Prominent attorney and founder of Thomas J. Henry Law; major donor to Paxton super PAC; endorser of Talarico; James Talarico, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate; state House member; Ken Paxton, Republican U.S. Senate candidate; state attorney general and 1 more
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general since 2015, won the Republican primary runoff in May 2026 by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn. He faces Democrat James Talarico in the November 3, 2026 general election for U.S. Senate.
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and Republican U.S. Senate nominee; James Talarico, Democratic U.S. Senate nominee; John Cornyn, Incumbent Republican U.S. senator defeated by Paxton in primary runoff and 1 more
An Associated Press analysis found early voting surging in states expected to decide U.S. Senate control. In Texas, early in-person and mail voting is up 74% compared with the same point in 2022.
Governor Greg Abbott held a campaign event in Richmond on his "Let's Roll" Get-Out-The-Vote tour, accompanied by Representative Matt Morgan. Early voting was underway.
Greg Abbott, Governor; Matt Morgan, Representative; Gina Hinojosa, mentioned in Abbott's statement
Voters at the Leon Valley Conference Center in Bexar County experienced delays during early voting after a ballot scanner jammed. The scanner, which can handle about 2,000 votes, jammed at around 1,200 votes. Waits reached up to two hours as poll workers addressed the issue.
Bexar County Elections Administrator Michele Carew, Elections administrator; Roberto Flores, Voter; Cathy Hazzard, Voter and 1 more
In a Fox News poll released two weeks before the Texas Senate election, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are tied at 49% among likely voters. Paxton has gained ground since September, when Talarico led by two percentage points.
Ken Paxton, Republican Senate candidate, Texas attorney general; James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate