University of Texas poll shows Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race

Who's involved

• James TalaricoDemocratic state representative, U.S. Senate candidate
• Ken PaxtonRepublican state attorney general, U.S. Senate candidate
• Greg AbbottGovernor
• Mark JonesPolitical scientist at Rice University
• University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectPoll conductor

The facts

• University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 47%.^{1 2} Stated by 2 sources
• Talarico leads among Latino, urban, suburban and female voters; Paxton leads among rural and male voters.^{1 2} Stated by 2 sources
• Independents favor Talarico over Paxton 69% to 11%.^{1 2} Stated by 2 sources
• 69% of likely Republican voters view Paxton favorably; 92% of likely Democratic voters view Talarico favorably.^{1 2} Stated by 2 sources
• No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.^{1 2} Stated by 2 sources
• Paxton was acquitted in a 2023 impeachment; resolved securities-fraud case against him.^{1 2} Stated by 2 sources

Who said what

These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.

• Mark Jones, Rice University political scientist Trump unpopularity is the biggest factor in potential Democratic upset in Texas.^{1 2}
• Mark Jones Republican Senate candidate Paxton is deeply flawed.^{1 2}
• Mark Jones Lackluster Republican support for Paxton is more impactful to the race than Talarico's support.^{1 2}