CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Democrats' chances of winning the U.S. Senate depend heavily on the Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. Enten said Texas is the fourth most likely seat to flip and Talarico's victory would give Democrats a 78% chance of Senate control.
Where
Texas
When
Oct. 4, 2026
Sources
Reported by 5 outlets
Taxes and money
The sources don't state an effect on taxes. They do state these figures.
Campaign spending$31 million2Who pays or receives it: James Talarico
Who's involved
Harry EntenCNN chief data analyst
James TalaricoDemocratic state representative running for U.S. Senate
Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General and Republican Senate candidate backed by Trump
Angela PaxtonTexas state senator and estranged wife of Ken Paxton
The facts
CNN's Harry Enten put Talarico's chances of victory at 70% based on poll aggregation.34Stated by 2 sources
A New York Times poll showed Talarico leading by 6 points.234Stated by 3 sources
A Fox News poll showed Talarico leading by 2 points.34Stated by 2 sources
Angela Paxton released an ad urging voters to back the Republican ticket without mentioning her estranged husband by name.234Stated by 3 sources
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
Harry Enten If Talarico wins Texas, Democrats get 78% chance of controlling U.S. Senate.234
Harry Enten Democrats need to flip four Senate seats; Texas is fourth most likely to flip.234
Harry Enten Democrats' chances of winning Senate have been going up like a rocket.34
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrats Lead In Texas, Ohio, Alaska Senate Races (Updated Daily)
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for Texas governor, was interviewed about her campaign. She is running to secure schools and put money in voters' pockets, and is challenging Republican incumbent Greg Abbott.
Two Texas county judge races are scheduled for the Nov. 3 election. In Bexar County, Republican Patrick Von Dohlen is challenging Democrat Ron Nirenberg. In Brazoria County, Republican Rob Giesecke, independent Lucinda Henry and Democrat Eugene Howard are running to replace retiring County Judge Matt Sebesta.
Patrick Von Dohlen, Republican candidate for Bexar County judge; Ron Nirenberg, Democrat candidate for Bexar County judge; Rob Giesecke, Republican candidate for Brazoria County judge and 3 more
County clerks and election administrators across Texas are implementing security procedures before early voting begins October 19. Travis County plans 201 voting locations on Election Day. Multiple counties conducted security training for poll workers.
Travis County Clerk Dyana Limon-Mercado, Travis County Clerk; Bexar County Elections Administrator Michele Carew, Bexar County Elections Administrator; Dallas County Elections Administrator Paul Adams, Dallas County Elections Administrator and 2 more
Democratic and Republican candidates released third-quarter campaign fundraising reports for the 2026 midterm elections. Democrat James Talarico's Texas Senate campaign raised $60 million between July and September, while Republican Ken Paxton's campaign raised about $10 million in the same period. Elon Musk's super PAC has heavily backed Paxton's campaign.
$$60 million for campaign funds raised, third quarter 2026
James Talarico, Democrat candidate for Texas Senate; Ken Paxton, Republican candidate for Texas Senate; Elon Musk, Tech billionaire and super PAC backer of Republican candidates
Elon Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September 2026, which transferred the money to Texas PAC to finance advertising supporting Republican Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.
$$158 million for donation to Senate Leadership Fund
Elon Musk, Donor; Ken Paxton, Republican Senate candidate; James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate and 3 more
Mike Garcia, a former college classmate of Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, appeared on Fox News to accuse Talarico of putting political ambitions ahead of truthfulness.
James Talarico, Democratic Texas Senate candidate; Mike Garcia, former college classmate making accusation; Will Cain, Fox News host
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico announced a campaign rally in El Paso on October 26 from 6 to 8 p.m., with doors opening at 5 p.m. The event is part of his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" statewide tour ahead of the November 3 election.
James Talarico, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate; Ken Paxton, Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General
Organizers of the "No Kings" movement held a gathering in Dallas to encourage early voting. The event included speakers, music, community activities, voting information, and election volunteer opportunities.
Indivisible Dallas, organizer of Dallas gathering; Black Voters Matter Texas, participating organization