A Marist poll released Wednesday showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 48% to 44% among registered voters in the Texas U.S. Senate race. Among likely voters, Talarico's lead narrowed to 2 points.
Where
Statewide
When
October 8-11, 2026
Sources
Reported by 2 outlets
Taxes and money
None stated in sources.
Who's involved
James TalaricoDemocratic candidate for U.S. Senate, state representative
Ken PaxtonRepublican candidate for U.S. Senate, Texas Attorney General
MaristPoll conductor
The facts
Marist poll showed 48% of registered voters support Talarico, 44% support Paxton.12Stated by 2 sources
Among likely voters, Talarico led Paxton by 2 points.12Stated by 2 sources
Talarico's 4-point lead in October poll was 2 points lower than September.12Stated by 2 sources
Poll conducted among 1,196 Texas registered voters between Oct. 8 and Oct. 11.12Stated by 2 sources
Poll margin of error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points overall, 4.9 for likely voters.12Stated by 2 sources
Talarico revealed Sept. 30 he had the flu, causing him to miss public campaign appearances.12Stated by 2 sources
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
Conservative influencer Nick Sortor Talarico was receiving treatment at Lindner Center of Hope in Ohio.12
53% of likely voters Paxton will win the election.12
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
New poll reveals surprising shift in Texas Senate race after Talarico’s 13-day absence
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for Texas governor, was interviewed about her campaign. She is running to secure schools and put money in voters' pockets, and is challenging Republican incumbent Greg Abbott.
Two Texas county judge races are scheduled for the Nov. 3 election. In Bexar County, Republican Patrick Von Dohlen is challenging Democrat Ron Nirenberg. In Brazoria County, Republican Rob Giesecke, independent Lucinda Henry and Democrat Eugene Howard are running to replace retiring County Judge Matt Sebesta.
Patrick Von Dohlen, Republican candidate for Bexar County judge; Ron Nirenberg, Democrat candidate for Bexar County judge; Rob Giesecke, Republican candidate for Brazoria County judge and 3 more
County clerks and election administrators across Texas are implementing security procedures before early voting begins October 19. Travis County plans 201 voting locations on Election Day. Multiple counties conducted security training for poll workers.
Travis County Clerk Dyana Limon-Mercado, Travis County Clerk; Bexar County Elections Administrator Michele Carew, Bexar County Elections Administrator; Dallas County Elections Administrator Paul Adams, Dallas County Elections Administrator and 2 more
Democratic and Republican candidates released third-quarter campaign fundraising reports for the 2026 midterm elections. Democrat James Talarico's Texas Senate campaign raised $60 million between July and September, while Republican Ken Paxton's campaign raised about $10 million in the same period. Elon Musk's super PAC has heavily backed Paxton's campaign.
$$60 million for campaign funds raised, third quarter 2026
James Talarico, Democrat candidate for Texas Senate; Ken Paxton, Republican candidate for Texas Senate; Elon Musk, Tech billionaire and super PAC backer of Republican candidates
Elon Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September 2026, which transferred the money to Texas PAC to finance advertising supporting Republican Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.
$$158 million for donation to Senate Leadership Fund
Elon Musk, Donor; Ken Paxton, Republican Senate candidate; James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate and 3 more
Mike Garcia, a former college classmate of Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, appeared on Fox News to accuse Talarico of putting political ambitions ahead of truthfulness.
James Talarico, Democratic Texas Senate candidate; Mike Garcia, former college classmate making accusation; Will Cain, Fox News host
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico announced a campaign rally in El Paso on October 26 from 6 to 8 p.m., with doors opening at 5 p.m. The event is part of his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" statewide tour ahead of the November 3 election.
James Talarico, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate; Ken Paxton, Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General
Organizers of the "No Kings" movement held a gathering in Dallas to encourage early voting. The event included speakers, music, community activities, voting information, and election volunteer opportunities.
Indivisible Dallas, organizer of Dallas gathering; Black Voters Matter Texas, participating organization