New polls show Abbott and Hinojosa in close Texas governor race

Who's involved

• Greg AbbottRepublican Texas Governor, candidate
• Gina HinojosaDemocratic state representative, candidate
• Real Clear Politicspolling average source
• Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Centerpoll conductor
• ReconMRpoll conductor
• YouGovpoll conductor
• UnidosUSsurvey conductor

The facts

• Real Clear Politics labeled the gubernatorial race a toss-up, first time in Abbott's political career.²
• Abbott leads by 1–7 points according to Real Clear Politics polling average; most polls show race statistically tied.²
• ReconMR poll found Abbott at 48%, Hinojosa at 47%, a 1-point difference within margin of error.^{4 5} Stated by 2 sources
• ReconMR poll showed 5-point shift from September when Hinojosa led 49% to 45%.^{4 5} Stated by 2 sources
• YouGov poll conducted Sept. 28–Oct. 5 put Hinojosa one point ahead, 48% to 47%.⁵
• In Fort Bend County TSU poll, Hinojosa has 53% support; Abbott has 42%.²
• ReconMR surveyed 617 likely Texas voters Oct. 5–8, 2026, with margin of error of plus/minus 4.4 points.^{4 5} Stated by 2 sources
• Hinojosa leads among Democrats 94% to 2%; Abbott leads among Republicans 92% to 5%.^{4 5} Stated by 2 sources

Who said what

These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.

• UnidosUS CEO Janet Murguía Working-class Hispanic families are working longer but struggling economically in unprecedented ways.²
• ReconMR senior research analyst Lindsey Hendren Movement between polls may not represent decisive change; all polls subject to sampling error.⁵
• Lindsey Hendren Abbott's spending advantage and polling showing him behind may have mobilized Republican voters.⁵