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UMass Lowell/YouGov poll shows Paxton and Talarico tied at 45% in Texas Senate race

A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll released October 8, 2026, shows Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico each at 45% support among likely voters in the Texas US Senate race, with 7% undecided and 2% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown.

Where
Statewide
When
October 8, 2026
Sources
Reported by 11 outlets

Taxes and money

None stated in sources.

Does this affect you?

Who's involved

  • Ken PaxtonRepublican Attorney General, US Senate candidate
  • James TalaricoDemocratic state Representative, US Senate candidate
  • Ted BrownLibertarian candidate
  • John CornynUS Senator from Texas
  • UMass Lowell/YouGovPoll conductor

The facts

  • Poll surveyed 850 likely Texas voters with 4.5 percentage point margin of error.2
  • Survey conducted between September 18 and 28, 2026.2
  • Among voters 65 and older: Paxton 58%, Talarico 38%.2
  • Among voters aged 18-29: Talarico 49%, Paxton 37%.2
  • Among Hispanic voters: Talarico 48%, Paxton 42%.2
  • Among African American voters: Talarico 67%, Paxton 17%.2
  • Talarico favorability: 42% favorable, 41% unfavorable.2
  • Paxton ousted incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in contentious primary runoff in May.1

Who said what

These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.

  • Talarico campaign (via JT Ennis, campaign spokesperson) Talarico had nasty case of flu for seven days; he was meeting with voters at ACL.3
  • Republican Paxton and GOP Attempted to question Talarico's flu claims regarding his 13-day campaign absence.3

Where the sources disagree

  • Talarico's image favorability measurement Poll measured Talarico favorability at 42% favorable and 41% unfavorable [2]; poll did not present equivalent measurement for Paxton [2]

How they headlined it

The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.

  • Ken Paxton James Talarico Texas Poll: New Survey Shows Dead Heat In Highly Contested US Senate Race

    The Sunday Guardian

  • Texas Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Paxton and Talarico in Senate Race

    MundoNOW

  • James Talarico Odds Drop a Quarter Percentage as Ken Paxton Now Pays $145 in Tightly Contested Texas Senate Race

    Gambling911.com

  • ‘Get in line:’ Donors strike new tone about helping Paxton

    Politico, Yahoo

  • Ken Paxton faces new round of allegations as his Senate race heats up in Texas

    MS NOW

  • Talarico leads Paxton in Texas Senate race; Abbott faces tight governor contest

    Crypto Briefing

  • New Texas polling shows Talarico, Hinojosa leading Paxton, Abbott in tight races

    CW39 Houston, KTSM 9 News, KXAN Austin, AOL.com, KETK.com, BorderReport

  • Poll Shows Ken Paxton Narrowly Leading James Talarico in Texas U.S. Senate Race

    Breitbart News

Sources

Outlets: 3 not rated Who's covering Texas →

These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.

  1. Ken Paxton James Talarico Texas Poll: New Survey Shows Dead Heat In Highly Contested US Senate Race The Sunday Guardian Not rated, October 9, 2026
  2. Texas Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Paxton and Talarico in Senate Race MundoNOW Not rated, October 10, 2026
  3. James Talarico Odds Drop a Quarter Percentage as Ken Paxton Now Pays $145 in Tightly Contested Texas Senate Race Gambling911.com Not rated, October 10, 2026

Also reported by Politico, Yahoo, MS NOW, Crypto Briefing, CW39 Houston, KTSM 9 News, KXAN Austin, AOL.com, KETK.com, BorderReport, Breitbart News, SuaraGarut.ID, CBS News, KHOU.

This sheet was written by AI from the sources above and adds nothing they don't state. Read the originals for full context.

Spot an error on this sheet?

All corrections and updates

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