A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll released October 8, 2026, shows Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico each at 45% support among likely voters in the Texas US Senate race, with 7% undecided and 2% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown.
Where
Statewide
When
October 8, 2026
Sources
Reported by 11 outlets
Taxes and money
None stated in sources.
Who's involved
Ken PaxtonRepublican Attorney General, US Senate candidate
James TalaricoDemocratic state Representative, US Senate candidate
Ted BrownLibertarian candidate
John CornynUS Senator from Texas
UMass Lowell/YouGovPoll conductor
The facts
Poll surveyed 850 likely Texas voters with 4.5 percentage point margin of error.2
Survey conducted between September 18 and 28, 2026.2
Among voters 65 and older: Paxton 58%, Talarico 38%.2
Among voters aged 18-29: Talarico 49%, Paxton 37%.2
Paxton ousted incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in contentious primary runoff in May.1
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
Talarico campaign (via JT Ennis, campaign spokesperson) Talarico had nasty case of flu for seven days; he was meeting with voters at ACL.3
Republican Paxton and GOP Attempted to question Talarico's flu claims regarding his 13-day campaign absence.3
Where the sources disagree
Talarico's image favorability measurement Poll measured Talarico favorability at 42% favorable and 41% unfavorable [2]; poll did not present equivalent measurement for Paxton [2]
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
Ken Paxton James Talarico Texas Poll: New Survey Shows Dead Heat In Highly Contested US Senate Race
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for Texas governor, was interviewed about her campaign. She is running to secure schools and put money in voters' pockets, and is challenging Republican incumbent Greg Abbott.
Two Texas county judge races are scheduled for the Nov. 3 election. In Bexar County, Republican Patrick Von Dohlen is challenging Democrat Ron Nirenberg. In Brazoria County, Republican Rob Giesecke, independent Lucinda Henry and Democrat Eugene Howard are running to replace retiring County Judge Matt Sebesta.
Patrick Von Dohlen, Republican candidate for Bexar County judge; Ron Nirenberg, Democrat candidate for Bexar County judge; Rob Giesecke, Republican candidate for Brazoria County judge and 3 more
County clerks and election administrators across Texas are implementing security procedures before early voting begins October 19. Travis County plans 201 voting locations on Election Day. Multiple counties conducted security training for poll workers.
Travis County Clerk Dyana Limon-Mercado, Travis County Clerk; Bexar County Elections Administrator Michele Carew, Bexar County Elections Administrator; Dallas County Elections Administrator Paul Adams, Dallas County Elections Administrator and 2 more
Democratic and Republican candidates released third-quarter campaign fundraising reports for the 2026 midterm elections. Democrat James Talarico's Texas Senate campaign raised $60 million between July and September, while Republican Ken Paxton's campaign raised about $10 million in the same period. Elon Musk's super PAC has heavily backed Paxton's campaign.
$$60 million for campaign funds raised, third quarter 2026
James Talarico, Democrat candidate for Texas Senate; Ken Paxton, Republican candidate for Texas Senate; Elon Musk, Tech billionaire and super PAC backer of Republican candidates
Elon Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September 2026, which transferred the money to Texas PAC to finance advertising supporting Republican Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.
$$158 million for donation to Senate Leadership Fund
Elon Musk, Donor; Ken Paxton, Republican Senate candidate; James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate and 3 more
Mike Garcia, a former college classmate of Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, appeared on Fox News to accuse Talarico of putting political ambitions ahead of truthfulness.
James Talarico, Democratic Texas Senate candidate; Mike Garcia, former college classmate making accusation; Will Cain, Fox News host
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico announced a campaign rally in El Paso on October 26 from 6 to 8 p.m., with doors opening at 5 p.m. The event is part of his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" statewide tour ahead of the November 3 election.
James Talarico, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate; Ken Paxton, Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General
Organizers of the "No Kings" movement held a gathering in Dallas to encourage early voting. The event included speakers, music, community activities, voting information, and election volunteer opportunities.
Indivisible Dallas, organizer of Dallas gathering; Black Voters Matter Texas, participating organization