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Prediction market odds tighten in Texas governor race between Abbott and Hinojosa

Prediction market platforms show Republican Gov. Greg Abbott favored over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in Tuesday's gubernatorial election, though Hinojosa's odds have risen significantly in recent months. More than 7.7 million Texans cast early ballots.

Where
Texas statewide
When
November 2, 2026
Sources
Reported by 4 outlets

Taxes and money

The sources don't state an effect on taxes. They do state these figures.

  • Investment including three new data center campuses$40 billion2 Who pays or receives it: Google

Does this affect you?

Coming up

  • Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Texas gubernatorial election between Abbott and Hinojosa (Texas)2

Who's involved

  • Greg AbbottRepublican governor seeking reelection
  • Gina HinojosaDemocratic state representative seeking governorship
  • GoogleMade $40 billion investment including data center campuses in Texas

The facts

  • On Kalshi, speculators gave Abbott a 60% chance of winning on Monday.2
  • Hinojosa's odds rose from 8% in mid-July to 40% on Monday on Kalshi.2
  • On Polymarket, Hinojosa's chances climbed from as low as 5% in late July to 39% on Monday.2
  • Abbott ordered an audit of data center facilities seeking to connect to Texas grid in August.2
  • Abbott halted approval of all data center-related permits pending an audit in September.2
  • More than 7.7 million Texans cast ballots after in-person early voting ended Friday.2

Who said what

These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.

  • Gina Hinojosa's campaign Calls for immediate moratorium on data centers until legislature establishes guardrails for industry.2
  • Political observers Watching the contest for evidence of voter backlash against AI data center development.2
  • Gina Hinojosa Criticized Abbott over his earlier support for data center expansion.2

Where the sources disagree

  • Hinojosa is seeking to become Texas' first Democratic governor in more than 30 years More than 30 years stated per [2]

How they headlined it

The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.

  • Texas governor race: Greg Abbott seeks a record fourth term as polls put Gina Hinojosa within a few points

    Nacionale

  • Prediction Markets Now Favor Democrats to Win ALL 7 of the Top Swing Senate Races

    Mediaite

  • Hinojosa edges past Abbott in latest Texas governor race poll

    FOX 7 Austin

  • Abbott Favored as Texas Prediction Market Race Tightens

    Oz Arab Media

Sources

Outlets: 1 left-leaning, 1 not rated Only left-leaning outlets reported this Who's covering Texas →

These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.

  1. Prediction Markets Now Favor Democrats to Win ALL 7 of the Top Swing Senate Races Mediaite Lean Left, November 2, 2026
  2. Abbott Favored as Texas Prediction Market Race Tightens Oz Arab Media Not rated, November 2, 2026

Also reported by Nacionale, FOX 7 Austin.

This sheet was written by AI from the sources above and adds nothing they don't state. Read the originals for full context.

Spot an error on this sheet?

All corrections and updates

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Texas early voting surpasses 7 million ahead of 2026 midterm elections

More than 7 million Texans voted early ahead of the November 4, 2026 midterm elections, about 1.5 million more than early voting in Texas during 2022. Early voting nationwide surpassed 50.5 million.

University of Florida Election Lab, Tracked early voting data; Vote-Hub and Ryan Data and Research, Analyzed early voter turnout by primary history

Reported by 2 outletsOnly left-leaning outlets reported thisFound via Google News

Senate races in multiple states test candidates' Social Security reform plans

With Social Security's trust fund projected to be depleted in late 2032 without congressional action, Senate candidates in nine competitive races have outlined or discussed their positions on program reforms. Most voters surveyed say they prefer candidates with plans to avoid automatic benefit cuts.

Dan Sullivan, incumbent Republican Senator from Alaska; Mary Peltola, former Democratic Representative from Alaska; Peter G. Peterson Foundation, nonpartisan organization that surveyed voters and 5 more

Reported by 2 outletsFound via Google News

Tarrant County closes 92 polling locations before 2026 midterm elections

Tarrant County's Commissioner's Court voted in September to close 92 polling locations, reducing the number from 316 in the 2022 midterms to 224 for 2026. Community and advocacy groups launched campaigns to help voters adapt to the changes.

Tarrant County Commissioner's Court, Voted to close polling locations; Matt Krause, Republican county commissioner who voted for the cuts; Roderick Miles, Jr., Democratic county commissioner and 3 more

Reported by 2 outletsFound via Google News

North Texas transit agencies offer free rides to voters on Election Day

Multiple North Texas public transit agencies are offering free rides to voters on Election Day, November 3, 2026. Riders must show a valid voter registration card or government-issued ID. The offer applies to DART buses, trains, the Silver Line, GoLink, the Dallas Streetcar, Paratransit Services, Trinity Railway Express, Trinity Metro buses, and STAR Transit services.

DART, transit agency offering free rides; Trenise Winters, EVP and chief operations officer of DART; Trinity Metro, transit agency offering free rides and 1 more

Reported by 3 outletsFound via Google News

Dallas Morning News publishes op-ed by paid Hinojosa campaign consultant without disclosure

The Dallas Morning News published an op-ed on October 31 by Suzanne Bellsnyder endorsing Democrat Gina Hinojosa without disclosing that Bellsnyder was a paid consultant to Hinojosa's campaign. An editor's note was added November 1 admitting the omission.

$57,000 for consulting payments

Suzanne Bellsnyder, op-ed author, paid consultant to Gina Hinojosa campaign; Gina Hinojosa, Democrat legislator endorsed in op-ed; The Dallas Morning News, newspaper that published op-ed without disclosure

Reported by 2 outletsFound via Google News

Poll shows Talarico ahead of Paxton in Texas Senate race

A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race ahead of Election Day on November 3. Multiple polls show Democratic Senate candidates ahead or tied in several races nationwide.

James Talarico, Democratic candidate for Texas U.S. Senate; Ken Paxton, Republican candidate for Texas U.S. Senate, Texas Attorney General; Government Accountability Institute, Released report on election integrity threats and 2 more

Reported by 11 outletsFound via Google News

U.S. Senate candidate Talarico praises congressional candidate Haynes at campaign event

James Talarico, a U.S. Senate candidate in Texas, praised Frederick Haynes III, a Democratic congressional candidate for Texas' 30th Congressional District, at a get-out-the-vote event on Thursday. Haynes introduced Talarico and spoke at the event as part of Talarico's Clear Eyes Full Hearts tour.

James Talarico, U.S. Senate candidate in Texas; Frederick Haynes III, Democratic congressional candidate for Texas' 30th Congressional District; Jasmine Crockett, Incumbent representative in Texas' 30th Congressional District

Reported by 3 outletsOnly right-leaning outlets reported thisFound via Google News

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