President Trump conducted a 30-day campaign tour across eight states including Texas, with Senate stops in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina. A Newsweek analysis comparing polling and prediction market data from October 1 to October 28-29 found four races moved toward Republicans and four toward Democrats, with Republican candidate prices falling in six of eight states on prediction markets.
Where
Statewide
When
October 2026
Sources
Reported by 2 outlets
Taxes and money
None stated in sources.
Coming up
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. U.S. midterm elections with Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico2
Who's involved
Donald TrumpPresident conducting October campaign tour
Ken PaxtonRepublican U.S. Senate candidate in Texas
James TalaricoDemocratic U.S. Senate candidate in Texas
Natalie BaldassarreNational press secretary for Republican National Committee
NewsweekAnalyzed polling and prediction market data
The facts
Trump campaign tour visited eight states with Senate races: Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina.1
Six of the eight races were rated as potentially helping decide Senate control.1
Newsweek compared polling averages on October 1, Trump's first October rally date in each state, and October 28.1
Across all eight races, four moved toward Republicans and four moved toward Democrats.1
Republican candidates' prediction market prices fell in six of eight states on at least one market.1
Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are rated tossups by Cook Political Report.1
No Texas Democrat has won U.S. Senate election since 1988.2
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
Natalie Baldassarre, Republican National Committee Trump is the greatest force for turnout in American politics and momentum is on Republicans' side.1
Ken Paxton If Republicans lose Texas, they will lose the country.2
Ken Paxton The election is America our founders gave us versus something they would never recognize.2
James Talarico Ken Paxton is everything that's wrong with politics and is the most corrupt politician in Texas.2
Where the sources disagree
Effect of Trump's campaign stops on Republican performance Newsweek analysis shows no uniform improvement, with four races moving toward each party [1]; Republican National Committee claims momentum is on Republicans' side [1]
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
How Key Midterm Races Changed During Donald Trump’s 30-Day Campaign Blitz
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
As Democrats work to compete in Republican strongholds ahead of midterm elections on Tuesday, religious figures including Presbyterian pastor James Talarico are leading Democratic Senate campaigns in states like Texas and Kansas. A history professor predicted Democrats will win majorities in the House and Senate.
James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate in Texas, Presbyterian pastor; Adam Hamilton, Democratic Senate candidate in Kansas, Methodist megachurch chaplain; Allan Lichtman, American University history professor making election prediction and 2 more
Early voting ended in Texas on Friday, October 30, with long lines reported at multiple polling locations across North Texas. Voters, including first-time voters and long-time participants, waited to cast ballots on the final day of early voting.
FOX 4's Dionne Anglin, Reporter covering early voting in Tarrant County; Paul Quinn College voters, Students voting, many for the first time
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico and President Donald Trump held competing rallies in Lubbock, Texas on October 27 to support their respective Senate candidates. Both events drew thousands of supporters in the Republican-leaning county.
James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate; Donald Trump, President of the United States, appearing for Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton; Ken Paxton, Republican Senate candidate
Five candidates—incumbent Chris Canales and challengers Matthew Guzman, Arturo Alluin, Laura Ochoa-Todd, and Johnny Gonzalez—are competing for El Paso City Council District 8 in the Nov. 3 election. A dark-money group called Sun City Coalition has spent more than $127,000 on mailers, drawing criticism from both Canales and Guzman.
$$64,000 for spending on latest mailers
Chris Canales, Incumbent City Council District 8 candidate; Matthew Guzman, City Council District 8 candidate; Arturo Alluin, City Council District 8 candidate and 4 more
Fort Bend County is holding an election for county judge between Republican interim County Judge Daniel Wong and Democratic Commissioner Dexter McCoy. The race comes after former County Judge KP George was convicted of felony money laundering in March, and Wong was sworn in as acting county judge in April.
$Wong proposed a tax rate reduction before passing the 2027 fiscal year budget.
Daniel Wong, Republican interim County Judge candidate; former Sugar Land city council member and CEO of engineering firm; Dexter McCoy, Democratic candidate for county judge; Fort Bend County Commissioner since 2023; former aide to U.S. Secretary of Education; KP George, Former Fort Bend County Judge and 1 more
Williamson County is distributing limited-edition "I Voted" stickers designed by student contest winners from elementary, middle, and high schools. "Future Voter" stickers for those under 18 are also available while supplies last through November 3.
Felicity Ellis, Second grader from Naumann Elementary School, first place winner, elementary division; Landon Dyer, Fifth grader from Fern Bluff Elementary School, second place winner, elementary division; Drake Ellis, Fifth grader from Naumann Elementary School, third place winner, elementary division and 6 more
Democrat Gina Hinojosa continues her campaign to unseat incumbent Governor Greg Abbott in the final days before the election. Late polling and early voting trends show the race is competitive, with affordability, data centers and corruption concerns shaping the political landscape.
Gina Hinojosa, Democratic candidate for Governor; Greg Abbott, Incumbent Governor; Travis Trawick, Founder and CEO of FullPAC
The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, 36 governorships and over 6,100 state legislative seats are on the ballot. Senate races in Texas are among competitive battlegrounds that could determine control of Congress.
Donald Trump, President; Liz Shuler, AFL-CIO President; Stephen Moore, Former Trump economic adviser and 1 more