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Texas Senate race tightens as candidates hold final campaign events

With one week until Texas's 2026 Senate election, polls show Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton in a near-tie, while both campaigns intensify activity. Trump, Vance, and Talarico have scheduled campaign events this week.

Where
Statewide
When
Oct. 26, 2026
Sources
Reported by 2 outlets

Taxes and money

The sources don't state an effect on taxes. They do state these figures.

  • Talarico direct fundraising$68.6 million1
  • Paxton direct fundraising$19.5 million1
  • Republican spending on Paxton's behalfmore than $200 million1 Who pays or receives it: Republicans
  • Kalshi trading volume on Texas Senate racenearly $45 million1
  • Paxton policy proposal: medical cost deduction$25,0001

Does this affect you?

Coming up

  • Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Talarico holds rally at Texas Tech same night as Trump's Lubbock event (Lubbock area)1
  • Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Trump rallies with Paxton in Lubbock and Corpus Christi (Lubbock and Corpus Christi)1
  • Thursday, October 29, 2026. Vice President Vance rallies in Weatherford (Weatherford)1

Who's involved

  • James TalaricoState Rep., Democratic Texas Senate candidate
  • Ken PaxtonTexas Attorney General, Republican Texas Senate candidate
  • Donald TrumpPresident, scheduled to rally for Paxton
  • JD VanceVice President, scheduled to rally for Paxton
  • Neil BushBrother of former President George W. Bush, Talarico supporter

The facts

  • Fox News poll Oct. 21 shows Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% among likely voters.1
  • Emerson College poll Oct. 22 shows Talarico ahead 48% to 46%, within margin of error.1
  • CBS News poll Oct. 8–16 showed Talarico up 51% to 49%.1
  • RealClearPolitics average gives Talarico a 1.8-point lead.1
  • Kalshi prices Talarico at 65%, Paxton at 35%.1
  • About 4.2 million Texans voted early through Saturday, 22% of registered voters.1
  • Harris County had topped 624,000 early vote ballots through Sunday.1
  • Neil Bush posted on Facebook that he voted for Talarico, citing Paxton's record.1

Who said what

These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.

  • Ken Paxton Talarico is the most radical Democrat ever to run statewide.1
  • Fox News analyst Paxton's shift to tied race driven by consolidating conservatives, rural voters, suburban women.1
  • CBS News analyst Anthony Salvanto Democrats more likely to say they will vote; GOP turnout key variable.1
  • Neil Bush Character matters more than party affiliation; expressed concern about Paxton's 2020 challenge.1
  • CBS News analyst Ed O'Keefe A 1-2 point margin means 100,000 to 150,000 votes; Talarico needs Republicans to cross over.1

Where the sources disagree

  • Talarico's lead over Paxton Tied 49-49 per Fox Oct. 21 [1]; Talarico ahead 48-46 per Emerson Oct. 22 [1]; Talarico ahead 51-49 per CBS Oct. 8-16 [1]; Talarico ahead 1.8 points per RealClearPolitics average [1]

How they headlined it

The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.

  • Texas Senate odds show Talarico at 65% as Trump heads to Lubbock for Paxton

    Kalshi News

  • Texas Senate Odds: Talarico’s Edge as Trump Heads to Texas

    Action Network

Sources

Outlets: 2 not rated Who's covering Texas →

These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.

  1. Texas Senate odds show Talarico at 65% as Trump heads to Lubbock for Paxton Kalshi News Not rated, October 26, 2026
  2. Texas Senate Odds: Talarico’s Edge as Trump Heads to Texas Action Network Not rated, October 26, 2026

This sheet was written by AI from the sources above and adds nothing they don't state. Read the originals for full context.

Spot an error on this sheet?

All corrections and updates

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