Two polls released in October show different margins in the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll shows a 2-point Talarico lead within its margin of error; the Cook Political Report poll shows a 5-point Talarico lead outside its margin of error.
Where
Statewide
When
October 2026
Sources
Reported by 2 outlets
Taxes and money
None stated in sources.
Who's involved
James TalaricoDemocrat candidate for U.S. Senate
Ken PaxtonRepublican candidate for U.S. Senate
Ted BrownLibertarian candidate for U.S. Senate
Emerson College Pollingpolling organization
Nexstar Mediapolling organization
Cook Political Reportpolling organization
New River StrategiesDemocratic polling firm
GS Strategy GroupRepublican polling firm
Spencer KimballExecutive Director of Emerson College Polling
Amy WalterEditor-in-Chief and Publisher of Cook Political Report
The facts
Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll conducted Oct. 17-19 among 1,000 Texas likely voters.12Stated by 2 sources
Emerson poll released Oct. 22 showed Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%, Ted Brown 1%.12Stated by 2 sources
Emerson poll had 3.1 percentage point margin of error.12Stated by 2 sources
Cook Political Report poll conducted Oct. 9-13 among 934 Texas likely voters.12Stated by 2 sources
Cook poll released Oct. 21 showed Talarico 49%, Paxton 44%.12Stated by 2 sources
Cook poll had 3.2 percentage point margin of error.12Stated by 2 sources
Fox News poll released Oct. 21 showed Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% each.3
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Since August, Talarico's support rose from 46% to 48%, while Paxton hovered between 46% and 47%.12
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling If Libertarian candidate support declines, Paxton will likely see vote share increase.12
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling If Libertarian candidate support holds, Talarico benefits.12
Where the sources disagree
Texas Senate race margin between Talarico and Paxton 2-point Talarico lead per Emerson poll [1,2]; 5-point Talarico lead per Cook poll [1,2]; tied at 49% each per Fox News poll [3]
Ted Brown Libertarian candidate support 1% per Emerson poll [1,2]; 3% when leaning question asked [1,2]
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
2 polls disagree on how close Texas US Senate race really is
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
High-profile Democratic and Republican figures are campaigning in San Antonio ahead of November 3 midterm elections. Eva Longoria is appearing with James Talarico, the Democratic nominee challenging Republican Senator Ken Paxton. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will visit with Johnny Garcia, a candidate in Texas's 35th Congressional District. Speaker Dustin Burrows plans a GOP rally on October 29.
Eva Longoria, Democratic supporter making campaign appearance; James Talarico, Democratic nominee challenging Republican Senator Ken Paxton; Ken Paxton, Republican incumbent Senator and 3 more
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton held a Get Out The Vote rally in Sanger, Texas on October 25, as part of his campaign for U.S. Senate. Paxton stated campaign promises including tax deductions and criticized his Democratic opponent James Talarico's voting record.
Ken Paxton, Republican Attorney General, U.S. Senate candidate; James Talarico, Democratic opponent; Brandon Gill, U.S. House representative, speaker at rally and 4 more
Early voting is underway for the November 3 midterm election. Bowie County has seen strong participation with more than 11,000 residents voting early, and Smith County, Bell County, McLennan County, and Miller County also reported strong turnout rates.
Pat McCoy, Bowie County Election Administrator; Beth Bohn, Miller County, Arkansas Election Coordinator; Laura Nixon, Bowie County voter and 1 more
Bailey County began the final week of early voting on October 26 ahead of the November 3 general election. The county courthouse serves as the early voting location with extended weekday hours through October 30.
Bailey County, county conducting early voting; Texas Secretary of State, reports voter registration figures
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa visited Texas State University on October 19 to meet with voters ahead of the November 3 general election. The event was hosted by Powered by People at the LBJ Student Center Mall.
Gina Hinojosa, Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Texas House member representing District 49; Greg Abbott, Republican incumbent governor; Pat Dixon, Libertarian candidate on gubernatorial ballot
Early voting in Texas was up approximately 74 percent two weeks before Election Day on November 3, 2026, compared with the same point in the 2022 midterm election, according to an Associated Press analysis. More than 30 million Americans had cast ballots nationwide as of October 26.
Associated Press, conducted analysis of early voting; University of Florida's Election Lab, tracked early voting numbers
A news report examines Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico's political involvement during his college years at the University of Texas at Austin from 2007 to 2011. Talarico was active in voter registration, student organizing and campus politics, including leading efforts to challenge rising tuition costs.
James Talarico, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate; UT Austin student 2007-2011; Ken Paxton, Republican in U.S. Senate race against Talarico; Andy Jones, Talarico's college friend and 1 more
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa are competing in the Nov. 3 gubernatorial election. Abbott is seeking a fourth term. Hinojosa has focused her campaign on opposing state takeovers of school districts and firing Education Commissioner Mike Morath. Abbott has emphasized property taxes, border security, and teacher recruitment. Abbott accused Hinojosa of supporting Sharia law based on her receiving an endorsement from CAIR, designated as a foreign terrorist organization in Texas.
Greg Abbott, Republican governor, candidate for fourth term; Gina Hinojosa, Democratic state representative, gubernatorial candidate; Mike Morath, Texas Education Commissioner and 2 more