Multiple polls show Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race
Multiple polls released in early October 2026 show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race from Texas. The polls vary by sample size, methodology, and geographic focus.
- Where
- Statewide
- When
- Early October 2026; polls conducted Sept. 9-Oct. 2 and Sept. 28-Oct. 5
- Sources
- Reported by 5 outlets
Taxes and money
None stated in sources.
Who's involved
- James TalaricoDemocratic candidate for U.S. Senate from Texas
- Ken PaxtonRepublican candidate for U.S. Senate from Texas, Texas Attorney General
- Ruth IgielnikPollster and writer for The New York Times
- Mark JonesPollster for Texas Southern University survey
- Michael AdamsPollster for Texas Southern University survey
The facts
- New York Times/Siena poll shows Talarico leading Paxton by 6 percentage points among likely voters.1
- Texas Southern University poll of Fort Bend County shows Talarico at 56%, Paxton at 38%, margin of error 2.83%.2
- YouGov poll of 3,625 Texas registered voters shows Talarico at 50%, Paxton at 44%, conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 5.4
- Fort Bend County poll conducted between Sept. 9 and Oct. 2 surveyed 1,200 likely voters.2
- Fox News poll shows Talarico at 51%, Paxton at 49% among likely Texas voters.5
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
- Sunny Hostin, 'The View' co-host Texas will go blue in November for first time in 30 years.5
- Sunny Hostin In September, eight pollsters had Talarico ahead 51-45%.5
- Alyssa Farah Griffin, 'The View' co-host Talarico's edge is referendum on Trump administration frustration.5
- Mark Jones, pollster Fort Bend results indicate statewide trend where Paxton is down 2-3 points.2
Where the sources disagree
- Talarico's margin over Paxton statewide 6 points per NYT/Siena [1]; 6 points per YouGov [4]; 2 points per Fox News [5]
- Paxton's net favorability in Fort Bend County −29 per TSU poll [2]; −18 points per Fox News [5]
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
New NYT/Siena Poll: Talarico ahead of Paxton by six points
New Poll of Fort Bend County Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton by 18 Points
New Fort Bend County Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton by 18 Points
President touts Trump Accounts as Texas Senate polls show Talarico lead
Talarico leads Paxton among younger Texas voters, new poll shows
'The View' co-host predicts Texas will 'go blue' as polls show Talarico leading Paxton
'The View' co-host Sunny Hostin predicts Texas will 'go blue' as polls show Talarico leading Paxton
Sources
Outlets: 2 left-leaning, 1 right-leaning, 2 not rated Who's covering Texas →
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
- New NYT/Siena Poll: Talarico ahead of Paxton by six points
- New Poll of Fort Bend County Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton by 18 Points
- President touts Trump Accounts as Texas Senate polls show Talarico lead
- Talarico leads Paxton among younger Texas voters, new poll shows
- 'The View' co-host predicts Texas will 'go blue' as polls show Talarico leading Paxton
Also reported by 930 WFMD Free Talk, New York Post.
This sheet was written by AI from the sources above and adds nothing they don't state. Read the originals for full context.