Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by six points in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a New York Times/Siena Research Institute poll. Advertising spending in the race has reached $442 million, the second most expensive non-presidential race on record.
Where
Statewide
When
October 2026; early voting set to begin in approximately two weeks
Sources
Reported by 2 outlets
Taxes and money
The sources don't state an effect on taxes. They do state these figures.
U.S. Senate race advertising spending$442 million34
Republican campaign spending$326 million34Who pays or receives it: Republicans
Democratic campaign spending$116 million34Who pays or receives it: Democrats
Who's involved
James TalaricoDemocrat candidate for U.S. Senate; State Representative
Ken PaxtonRepublican candidate for U.S. Senate; Attorney General
Angela PaxtonState Senator (R-McKinney); appeared in ad during race
New York Times and Siena Research InstituteConducted poll
AdImpactAd tracking firm
The facts
Latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Talarico leads Paxton 51% to 45%.34Stated by 2 sources
In June poll, Talarico and Paxton were tied at 47% each.34Stated by 2 sources
Advertising spending in Texas Senate race reached $442 million, second most expensive non-presidential race on record.34Stated by 2 sources
Republicans outspent Democrats $326 million to $116 million in the race.34Stated by 2 sources
Angela Paxton appeared in ad encouraging voters to vote Republican ticket.2
Angela Paxton filed for divorce from Ken Paxton last year on biblical grounds, alleging adultery.2
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
SMU Political Science Professor Matthew Wilson Republicans made calculation they can't sidestep personal accusations, willing to address head-on.2
Where the sources disagree
Paxton's status in the race Paxton faces uphill path per [1,2]; Talarico extends lead per [3,4]
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
Texas Senate race: Paxton faces uphill path as Talarico leads in recent polls
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for Texas governor, was interviewed about her campaign. She is running to secure schools and put money in voters' pockets, and is challenging Republican incumbent Greg Abbott.
Two Texas county judge races are scheduled for the Nov. 3 election. In Bexar County, Republican Patrick Von Dohlen is challenging Democrat Ron Nirenberg. In Brazoria County, Republican Rob Giesecke, independent Lucinda Henry and Democrat Eugene Howard are running to replace retiring County Judge Matt Sebesta.
Patrick Von Dohlen, Republican candidate for Bexar County judge; Ron Nirenberg, Democrat candidate for Bexar County judge; Rob Giesecke, Republican candidate for Brazoria County judge and 3 more
County clerks and election administrators across Texas are implementing security procedures before early voting begins October 19. Travis County plans 201 voting locations on Election Day. Multiple counties conducted security training for poll workers.
Travis County Clerk Dyana Limon-Mercado, Travis County Clerk; Bexar County Elections Administrator Michele Carew, Bexar County Elections Administrator; Dallas County Elections Administrator Paul Adams, Dallas County Elections Administrator and 2 more
Democratic and Republican candidates released third-quarter campaign fundraising reports for the 2026 midterm elections. Democrat James Talarico's Texas Senate campaign raised $60 million between July and September, while Republican Ken Paxton's campaign raised about $10 million in the same period. Elon Musk's super PAC has heavily backed Paxton's campaign.
$$60 million for campaign funds raised, third quarter 2026
James Talarico, Democrat candidate for Texas Senate; Ken Paxton, Republican candidate for Texas Senate; Elon Musk, Tech billionaire and super PAC backer of Republican candidates
Elon Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September 2026, which transferred the money to Texas PAC to finance advertising supporting Republican Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.
$$158 million for donation to Senate Leadership Fund
Elon Musk, Donor; Ken Paxton, Republican Senate candidate; James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate and 3 more
Mike Garcia, a former college classmate of Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, appeared on Fox News to accuse Talarico of putting political ambitions ahead of truthfulness.
James Talarico, Democratic Texas Senate candidate; Mike Garcia, former college classmate making accusation; Will Cain, Fox News host
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico announced a campaign rally in El Paso on October 26 from 6 to 8 p.m., with doors opening at 5 p.m. The event is part of his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" statewide tour ahead of the November 3 election.
James Talarico, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate; Ken Paxton, Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General
Organizers of the "No Kings" movement held a gathering in Dallas to encourage early voting. The event included speakers, music, community activities, voting information, and election volunteer opportunities.
Indivisible Dallas, organizer of Dallas gathering; Black Voters Matter Texas, participating organization