Multiple polls released in early October show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with different margins across surveys. Paxton, the state attorney general, and Talarico, a state representative, are competing in what is described as a competitive race for a seat in a traditionally Republican state.
Where
Statewide
When
Polls released Oct. 2-3, 2026
Sources
Reported by 14 outlets
Taxes and money
None stated in sources.
Who's involved
James TalaricoDemocratic U.S. Senate nominee; state representative
Ken PaxtonRepublican U.S. Senate nominee; Texas attorney general
Angela PaxtonKen Paxton's estranged wife; state senator
Daron ShawPollster for Fox News poll
The facts
New York Times/Siena poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 45%.4
Fox News poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 49% among likely voters.6
Fox News poll shows Talarico leading Paxton by 7 points among registered voters.6
Fox News poll's margin of error for likely voters is 3 percent.6
Angela Paxton released an ad supporting the Republican ticket without naming Ken Paxton.5
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House and later acquitted by state Senate.5
Fox News poll surveyed 1,203 registered voters via phone or text message.6
Who said what
These are statements and claims made by the people involved. They are reported, not verified.
Daron Shaw Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump; question is if average Republican will vote without Trump.6
Daron Shaw Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most Republican get-out-the-vote work.6
Where the sources disagree
Talarico's lead over Paxton 2 points per [6]; 6 points per [5]; 7 points per [3]
How they headlined it
The same event, as each outlet put it. Marked words appear in only one outlet's headline.
Talarico leads Paxton by 2 points in tightening Texas Senate race: Survey
These outlets were found through Google News headlines. Google decides which outlets appear there, and they lean mostly one way, so this sheet can only be as balanced as the reporting it was built from. Leanings are AllSides Media Bias Ratings.
Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for Texas governor, was interviewed about her campaign. She is running to secure schools and put money in voters' pockets, and is challenging Republican incumbent Greg Abbott.
Two Texas county judge races are scheduled for the Nov. 3 election. In Bexar County, Republican Patrick Von Dohlen is challenging Democrat Ron Nirenberg. In Brazoria County, Republican Rob Giesecke, independent Lucinda Henry and Democrat Eugene Howard are running to replace retiring County Judge Matt Sebesta.
Patrick Von Dohlen, Republican candidate for Bexar County judge; Ron Nirenberg, Democrat candidate for Bexar County judge; Rob Giesecke, Republican candidate for Brazoria County judge and 3 more
County clerks and election administrators across Texas are implementing security procedures before early voting begins October 19. Travis County plans 201 voting locations on Election Day. Multiple counties conducted security training for poll workers.
Travis County Clerk Dyana Limon-Mercado, Travis County Clerk; Bexar County Elections Administrator Michele Carew, Bexar County Elections Administrator; Dallas County Elections Administrator Paul Adams, Dallas County Elections Administrator and 2 more
Democratic and Republican candidates released third-quarter campaign fundraising reports for the 2026 midterm elections. Democrat James Talarico's Texas Senate campaign raised $60 million between July and September, while Republican Ken Paxton's campaign raised about $10 million in the same period. Elon Musk's super PAC has heavily backed Paxton's campaign.
$$60 million for campaign funds raised, third quarter 2026
James Talarico, Democrat candidate for Texas Senate; Ken Paxton, Republican candidate for Texas Senate; Elon Musk, Tech billionaire and super PAC backer of Republican candidates
Elon Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September 2026, which transferred the money to Texas PAC to finance advertising supporting Republican Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.
$$158 million for donation to Senate Leadership Fund
Elon Musk, Donor; Ken Paxton, Republican Senate candidate; James Talarico, Democratic Senate candidate and 3 more
Mike Garcia, a former college classmate of Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, appeared on Fox News to accuse Talarico of putting political ambitions ahead of truthfulness.
James Talarico, Democratic Texas Senate candidate; Mike Garcia, former college classmate making accusation; Will Cain, Fox News host
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico announced a campaign rally in El Paso on October 26 from 6 to 8 p.m., with doors opening at 5 p.m. The event is part of his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" statewide tour ahead of the November 3 election.
James Talarico, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate; Ken Paxton, Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General
Organizers of the "No Kings" movement held a gathering in Dallas to encourage early voting. The event included speakers, music, community activities, voting information, and election volunteer opportunities.
Indivisible Dallas, organizer of Dallas gathering; Black Voters Matter Texas, participating organization